Decision Resources Group reports the immunotherapy market will experience considerable growth through 2022, increasing from $1.1 billion in 2012 to nearly $9 billion in 2022 (corresponding to 23.8% annual growth) in the U.S., France, Germany, Italy, Spain, U.K. and Japan.
This growth will be driven by the expected market entry of nine novel immunotherapies—including four novel immune checkpoint inhibitors and five novel therapeutic vaccines—in new oncology indications and/or patient populations.
Interviewed experts are considerably optimistic about the potential of anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents based on promising data released to date in multiple oncology indications. The added prospect of using PD-L1 expression as a potential predictive biomarker for personalizing treatment intrigues interviewed experts; however, they remain cautious on this point, noting that considerable heterogeneity exists in PD-L1 expression and that good objective responses also have been reported in patients deemed to have no or low levels of PD-L1 expression.
Owing to impressive early-phase data presented at the 2014 annual meeting of the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO), interviewed experts express enthusiasm for combination approaches involving immunotherapies—including dual blockade of the immune checkpoint pathway, combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors with therapeutic cancer vaccines and combinations of immune checkpoint inhibitors with chemotherapy.
The therapeutic vaccines segment will witness 13.6% annual sales growth over the 2012 to 2022 forecast period, although, with combined major-market sales reaching $1.2 billion in 2022, these agents will fall short of replicating the commercial success of immune checkpoint inhibitors.
Khurram Nawaz, Decision Resources Group senior business insights analyst, said, “We anticipate that nivolumab will be the sales-leading agent among immunotherapies. However, it will face direct and intense competition from other anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents—notably from pembrolizumab in malignant melanoma and non-small-cell lung cancer—and, to a lesser extent, from MPDL-3280A in non-small-cell lung cancer.”