The value of the global acute myeloid leukemia (AML) therapeutics market will increase moderately from $632.6 million in 2013 to $878.6 million by 2020, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8%, according to New York-based business intelligence provider GBI Research.

The company’s latest report states that this growth, which will occur across eight major markets (the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan), is attributable to rising AML prevalence and the anticipated launches of five premium-priced drugs into a market dominated by generics.

Promising novel treatments, CPX-351, midostaurin, quizartinib, StemEx and treosulfan, have demonstrated encouraging efficacy and safety benefits in small patient cohorts in early clinical trials. These drugs are expected to show similar positive results in later studies, resulting in their approval during the forecast period, following which they are expected to outcompete inferior drugs and increase treatment rates.

Katie Noon, analyst for GBI Research, said, “The current developmental pipeline for AML has a strong number of drug candidates in both the late and early stages, especially for an orphan indication.”

“While AML treatment is dominated by generic chemotherapeutic agents, which have been the treatment of choice for the past four decades, the pipeline dynamics now suggest a strong focus on targeted therapies,” said Noon. “These are predominately small molecule inhibitors of serine threonine proteins kinases, immunological agents against tumor-associated antigens/genes and antagonists against cell-surface receptors.”

Despite the active pipeline, GBI Research found increasing stem cell transplant rates, combined with a lack of standardized treatment and high disease heterogeneity, could decrease AML prevalence, therefore hindering the positive effects of new drug approvals and AML drug market expansion by 2020.

Noon said, “A rise in stem cell transplants will allow for long-term remissions and higher recovery rates, lowering both AML prevalence and the demand for pharmacological therapeutics.”